BJP should present a promising manifesto for Tamil Nadu soon
This is a sequel to my 3 articles published in PGurus over the past year:
“Can BJP win TN 2024 elections, if it fights alone?”[1].
“How BJP can become an alternative to DMK in TN”[2].
“Will Annamalai defeat DMK in the 2024 LS elections?[3].
In these articles, I explored the evolving political landscape in Tamil Nadu (TN) and offered insights into BJP’s strategic options in the state. I had also envisaged the situation BJP is currently in, viz the untenability of its alliance with ADMK.
The basics of strategy apply to Warfare, marketing, and politics alike. In my previous article[1], I employed “The 22 Immutable Laws Of Marketing,” as espoused by renowned marketing experts Al Ries and Jack Trout, to analyze the BJP’s prospects in the 2024 LS elections with and without an alliance with ADMK.
I concluded that, while BJP’s short-term chances may not be high without an alliance with ADMK, this could help immensely in the long term. I acknowledged that if the BJP requires seats in the 2024 LS elections from TN, forming an alliance with ADMK might be a practical short-term move.
Based on the vote shares of the parties involved in the various elections in recent years, and many opinion polls, the following pointers of vote share can be inferred:
- Die-hard supporters of DMK are about 20% and of ADMK about 15%, apart from the vote shares of their respective allies, and voters who vote for them for want of better options.
- Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi and BJP, each have about 8% vote share.
- Congress, PMK, VCK, Communists, TMC (Tamil Maanila Congress), and MDMK have about 1-3% vote share each.
The size and intensity of die-hardness of the supporters of most of the parties, esp of ADMK and DMK, are coming down steeply. This is because they believe that the current state of their parties is not the same as the ones they were originally supporting enthusiastically.
The rest of the voters are either strategic voters (voting for DMK or ADMK alliance to defeat the other party they are keen to defeat), or bandwagon voters, as explained in my article titled, “How Do Voters Decide Who To Vote For”[4].
The alliance situation in TN is fluid. While the allies of DMK may bargain for more seats but stay with it, it is unclear as to which of the allies from TN would stay with NDA and whether any of them would go with ADMK. Though some analysts say it will depend on the outcome of the 5 State elections due shortly, I see no relevance of these results to LS polls.
The TN voters are broadly unhappy with all the parties to some extent, and no bandwagon effect is perceptible in favour of DMK or ADMK as is customary. Though bribing voters in cash has become common, mainly from DMK and ADMK, only a small percentage of the voters vote for the party from which they got the maximum money, as it is a secret voting system.
This offers the best opportunity, esp for the BJP, to challenge the DMK – ADMK hegemony and become the challenger, if not the leader in TN.
Three crucial factors could sway voter preferences in BJP’s favour:
- Annamalai’s “My Land, My People” (En Mann, En Makkal) yatra, has been garnering significant support in almost every constituency he has been visiting.
- On-going ED and CBI cases against DMK and ADMK ministers.
- The 2024 election is for PM, not TN CM. So, voters have to primarily choose between Modi and Rahul Gandhi who is the DMK-Congress candidate. In fact, there is no accepted PM candidate from the I.N.D.I.A. opposition alliance. Though Rahul Gandhi used to score well over Modi in the past, in TN, the voters have been increasingly accepting Modi in recent times though not coming close to Rahul Gandhi, as is clear from opinion polls. The high percentage of new aspiration generation voters doesn’t inherit the mindsets of the past generations centered around the Dravidian parties.
BJP is in a position to offer any benefits to TN as only BJP has the best chance to win the 2024 elections. None of the others are in a position to offer any meaningful promises that they can fulfill.
Annamalai’s yatra, marked by its extensive reach and genuine engagement with the public, is earning increasing trust and popularity by the day. He is not only connecting with people but also addressing their local concerns and promises constituency-specific solutions.
Some people dismiss the response to his yatra as nothing extraordinary. But getting such spontaneous crowds in so many places one after another in nearby constituencies, esp when elections are not around the corner, is extraordinary.
Annamalai’s approach to understanding the uniqueness of each constituency and tailoring constituency-specific manifestos is reminiscent of AAP’s successful strategy in Delhi. This local-level focus, coupled with a national-level and a state-level manifesto (hope BJP comes up with one in consultation with Annamalai), should resonate with TN voters.
While it may appear wishful thinking to some, there’s substance behind the idea that BJP can become a dominant political force (No 2 if not No 1) in TN in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, potentially securing over 20% of the vote share (excluding allies), regardless of the number of seats it secures. Factors such as Modi’s increasing popularity in TN, DMK’s poor governance, and ADMK’s uninspiring governance of the past and limited appeal of the current leadership should work in BJP’s favor.
BJP should explain to the smaller NDA allies, who have a significant combined vote share, why they should ally with BJP rather than with ADMK, like Modi’s popularity even in TN, ADMK’s lack of inspiring leadership, and DMK losing credibility, and try to stitch strong alliances with them.
Some people underestimate the potential of the work that Annamalai is doing. They compare him with many others before him who tried and failed, like Vijayakanth, Kamalahasan, Seeman, et al. They don’t understand that all of them relied only on their personal popularity to take on established parties and leaders, and they had not demonstrated their credentials in public administration, which Annamalai has done. And they didn’t have a party like BJP backing them.
Annamalai’s unique credentials (MBA qualification and honest IPS officer background) set him apart from these previous challengers. His experience in public administration and the support from the BJP provide a strong foundation for his campaign.
Annamalai’s strategy is very similar to AAP’s strategy in its debut when it defeated BJP and Congress hands down (though I’m not sure Annamalai would like this analogy).
Annamalai faces challenges within his party, but BJP’s disciplined, cadre-based, and results-oriented track record gives the confidence that it should help him overcome these hurdles.
Once voters perceive BJP (and NDA) as the best winnable alternative to DMK, many who would have planned to vote for ADMK (and even some for DMK) are likely to switch their votes to BJP. This could tilt the scales in favour of BJP vis a vis ADMK and even DMK.
This is not to say that BJP’s success in TN in the 2024 elections is assured. For the nationalistic party it is, for BJP, TN is more important than all other non-BJP-ruled states as it is probably the most difficult state to handle, being strategically located in the Indo-Pacific region, close to Sri Lanka.
BJP should try to change the perception of being seen as a North Indian party and emphasize its firm commitment to continue with English as a national-cum-link language, as elaborated in my article[2]. A promising state-level agenda should be drafted by the BJP, collaboratively with Annamalai, going beyond the anti-corruption plank.
All these steps will be needed even if there’s an unlikely patch-up between BJP and ADMK.
BJP has its best-ever opportunity in TN today, under Annamalai’s leadership. Missing this chance could mean an uncertain or subservient future for the BJP in TN politics.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
References:
[1] Can BJP win TN 2024 elections, if it fights alone? – Mar 31, 2023, PGurus.com
[2] How BJP can become an alternative to DMK in Tamil Nadu – Aug 18, 2022, PGurus.com
[3] Will Annamalai defeat DMK in the 2024 LS elections? – Jan 17, 2023, PGurus.com
[4] World views of an average Indian – 5: How do voters decide who to vote for – Oct 09, 2023, PGurus.com
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Whatever the next move, please ensure it doesn’t benefit the ‘Dengue Malaria Kosu’