Intelligence failure
The recent surprise attack by the Hamas terror outfit in Israel, by the name ‘Operation Al Aqsa Flood’ has sent several termers and shockwaves across the world, because of the scale of attacks that have taken place. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said that “this is the most lethal attack, on the Jews after the holocaust”. Even the spokesperson of IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) said that “this is the worst civilian massacre in 75 years of Israel’s history”. In every sense, the mythical reputations of Israel’s intelligence forces have been busted. The notions of invincible and unbeatable, which the IDF had has now been turned into rubbles. Most commentators across the world are attributing the intelligence failure, to be the main reason why the Israeli defence establishment was caught napping. At the same time, we do not know how Hamas, was able to breach Israeli security and enter into its deep pockets, where no one expected them to strike. But beyond this unending game of defence strategies and the smoke and mirror of intelligence business, deeper and graver reasons have emerged from some prominent strategic scholars, who believe that there are deeper strategic fissures that need to be magnified and taken note of.[1]
The ignored fissures in IDF.
An eminent strategic scholar, Anthony Cordesman, of CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) had said that “Israeli defence forces (IDF) have fought wars in 2006, 2008-9, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022, and at the end of each war, they have failed to bring out a decisive degradation of extremist or terrorist groups. Each war has been bloody and has caused a lot of destruction, but no war has been able to resolve Israel’s problems with the extremists and terrorists”, which he is clearly indicates that, ever since the past two decades, there has been a stalemate in combating and neutralizing terrorism. Another prominent Israeli Strategic scholar, and a celebrated military affairs author, Uri Bar-Joseph mentions that the “Quantity of the military is mainly decided by the quality of the enemy, and when the enemy is Palestinian civilians, the IDF troops spend more time guarding settlements and religious worshippers at Nablus (a Holy city in Israel), rather than engaging in rigorous training, the outcomes are clear”. Further, he points out how the intelligence had miserably failed, and although there were some shreds of evidences such as multiple meetings of the Hamas groups, with Iranian intelligence and army officials, the regroupings and underground activities of the extremist organizations both in West Bank and Gaza were happening under the nose of the IDF radar. And as per some sources, Mr. Netanyahu was warned by a veteran IDF and Intelligence doyen, saying ‘something big, is going to happen in the next few weeks’, and this was conveyed to the Israeli PM a month ago, before these Hamas attacks. But somehow, as a combination of ignorance, and not being able to connect the dots of intelligence, towards the larger evil strategic ambitions of the Hamas, Israel failed to predict and preemptively strike, towards the enemy.[2]
A major issue apart from the intelligence, which needs to be taken note is, how the quality of political leadership has taken a turn towards far-right religious fundamentalism. The rise of far-right politics has led to the hampering of professionalism and accountability factors, as it has affected the nature and psyche of the IDF in a significant manner. The military class entering politics and political interference in the military leading to the increased ideological and religious consciousness within the military has increased exponentially. If this doesn’t tone down and normalization does not set in, there are bound to be further antithetic repercussions.[3]
Now, focusing on the military aid of the USA, the Americans provide a whopping 3.8 million USD in military aid, as their annual expenditure commitment. Israel has been constantly investing a major chunk of this money in purchasing the F35 5th-generation stealth fighter jets, and a huge sum of money has been invested in this. Israel has been ordering the F35s for more than a decade now. They have so far ordered about 75 F35 out of which 36 have been delivered so far. This order includes the recent F35 deal which was finalized between US and Israel in July 2023, in which 25 Jets were ordered for 3 billion USD. Other than this, several other defence purchases are constantly being made from the USA since, which runs into billions of dollars. This clearly is an indication that the American military-industrial complex, has been lobbying steadily for the strengthening of the Israel-US alliance, and this has been going on for a long period of time. The American Military Industrial Complex (AMIC) is a perceived informal alliance between a portion of the nation’s scientific and technological community, its defence establishment, and certain sectors of the country’s military base. In other words, AMIC is the relationship between military leaders, government legislators, bureaucrats, and private contractors, all of whom have a stake in the national defence. With the active role of AMIC, it has become evident that most of the defence aid given to Israel has been consumed by the defence lobbies in the USA. Although it has equipped Israel and played a vital role in its military modernization, a multi-billion-dollar defence industry is thriving because of Israel.
Coming to the conventional and combat capability of the IDF, it is considered one of the most efficient and effective armed forces in the world. In conventional warfare, they have a clear conventional capacity, with a strong and modernized army, with the reliance on superior technology in intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR). In comparison with its hostile neighbours, such as Siriya, Jordan, and Egypt, Israel has a clear conventional superiority. However, when it comes to counter-insurgency strategies and prevention of attacks from militias and non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah, there has always been a stalemate, wiping them out or reducing them to insignificance. Neither have the threats reduced nor have the attacks. From this, it’s absolutely clear that the indomitable image of Israel and its glorified IDF needs to face the uncomfortable truth of poor anti-insurgency strategies. The revision of IDF in this issue is long overdue. The earlier the introspection and action begin in this direction, the better it is, for Israel’s own national security. If this weakness in unconventional warfare is further exploited by Israel’s enemies, there is bound to be a major challenge to the security apparatus of Israel.[4]
It might surprise most people that Israel has a semi-voluntary army or a conscripted army, which technically means that more than half of Israel’s forces are reserve and irregular forces. The main infantry units and the artillery units are turnovers of the new soldiers, who are inducted and stay for a short period of time for about 2-3 years and are sent back to their civilian roles. As a result of this, not enough time is spent in their respective units, and their effective training, coordination, cohesion, integrity, and jointness spirit in the operations are absent. This affects their combat readiness in a significant manner. Long training and participation in real-time combat operations are necessary for any army to handle complex ambushes and to encounter insurgent groups in an effective manner, and the current IDF clearly lacks it, as most of the new conscripts just perform the policing duties in safeguarding the west bank Israeli settlers and guarding the religious places and holy shrines. Perhaps this is the reason why several military experts are of the view that IDF forces are not combat-hardened and combat-experienced forces.
There is no doubt that a strategic failure has occurred, in decisively degrading the extremists and in achieving the intended objectives in terrorist operations. If we look at the Gaza wars of the past, such as Operation Cast Lead – 2008-9, Operation Pillar of Defence 2012, Operation Protective Edge 2014, Operation Guardian of Walls 2021 (which was a collective failure), 2022 10 days operation following Al-Aqsa mosque confrontation to the present war of Operation Iron Sword 2023, each time the IDF was back in Gaza. We’ll have to wait and watch whether the ongoing war would finally achieve its objectives or not, or will it result in yet another stalemate.[5]
In this asymmetric war, the Hamas is not a cohesive or conventional force. It is neither a nation, nor an armed force, and this is the reason why Israel needs to deal with them by developing robust and cohesive counter-insurgency measures. Because, we must all remember that this war might not be an end in itself, as terror organizations have a nasty, shrewd, sneaky, and deceptive way of rapidly regrouping and causing more lethal attacks with a newly charged force. But for now, the aura of Israeli invincibility and the legend of mossed have been destroyed. However, as advanced might technology grows, a complete reliance on technology and the downgrading of key aspects of human intelligence can be lethal for any modern combat, turning the entire conflict lopsided, favoring the enemy.
Reference:
[1] Shekar Gupta’s cut the clutter episode 1326 – Oct 14, 2023, YouTube
[2] A History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict – Jstor.org
[3] Israeli-Palestinian Conflict – Oct 13, 2023, Cfr.org
[4] Years of war, rise in terrorism led to the current Israel-Hamas conflict, experts say – Oct 12, 2023, ABC News
[5] Mapping the conflict in Israel and Gaza – Oct 14, 2023, Reuters
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MA in Political Science and International Relations. MA In Pol science ( Peace and Conflict studies specialization IGNOU)
Life Member and Organising Secretary of KAPSA ( Karnataka Political Science Association)
Research interests in Indian Foreign Policy, Global Conflict Diplomacy, European and Central Asian Geopolitics, Indian Strategic Thought and National Security studies, International Political Economics, Military History of India, Trade negotiations, International public law, International Political Psychology, India's constitutional law, comparative politics and strategic communications. Published over 38 articles in Samvada World. Attended several International conferences in Political Science, and published research papers in recognised journals.
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