How national GDP growth can jump to two digits?
Narendra Modi was a very popular CM for 12 1/2 years and has been a very popular PM for almost 10 years now. He’s also been the most popular world leader for some years now.
The fact that he’s the PM of India, the world’s largest democracy and perhaps the most diverse nation, in terms of religion, language, and socio-economic status, amplifies his popularity.
I’m reasonably certain that he’s set to become the PM for the third successive term, though some may disagree. BJP owes much of its success to the leadership of Modi.
This is not to say all is well with Modi and BJP. Improvement will, forever, be a work in progress. But Modi and BJP are easily the best options for India today.
The popularity of BJP’s leadership in the states has, however, been chequered. Many reforms are needed within the BJP.
In states governed by BJP, it’s doubtful if they would remain in power without Modi’s promise and campaigning. In fact, voters even discount his personal promises, which dents his popularity. This is why BJP is not able to replicate its success at the Centre, quite as well in the states.
The only BJP CM with a consistently high popularity rating today is Yogi Adityanath from UP. The only non-BJP CM with consistently high popularity rating Naveen Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal (BJD}, doesn’t have nationwide appeal.
Whether one likes BJP or not, it has immense potential and responsibility to shape the destiny of India. For a sustained and consistent reign across India for the long term, BJP needs internal reforms.
Seven critical parameters come to mind while evaluating PM or CM candidates:
- Perceived personal integrity.
- Popularity.
- Absence of negative perception.
- Intent and vision.
- Decisiveness.
- Ability to execute projects and schemes as planned.
- Ability to comprehend local, national, and geopolitical issues.
None of the BJP CMs or ministers, at the Central or in the states, present or past, comes anywhere close to Modi and Yogi considering all these parameters together.
Both Modi and Yogi act in the national interest, not personal interest. Other leaders, both within BJP and outside, usually prioritize self-interest ahead, performing well only under supervision. There is practically no regular supervision of the performance of the CMs, except by the voters during elections; the CMs are almost their own masters for 5 years.
This explains Modi’s sustained high ranking at the national level but the BJP’s struggles in the states (except UP) by its CMs. Voters must be sick and tired of changing CMs every election and yet seeing little difference being made by the states in their lives.
BJP needs to make major structural changes at the state level to achieve significantly higher levels of success.
A new Ministry can be created at the Centre to offer increased support to the states by coordinating with all other Central ministries. While this support can be unlimited for BJP-ruled states, it can be to the extent that non-BJP states are willing to take help from the Centre. This can also be a step in the direction of cooperative federalism.
If the popular perception of BJP rules states should be improved substantially, it may involve controlling the personal interests of BJP state leaders to minimal levels and mentoring CMs to maximize their performance in respect of all the 7 parameters.
One way this could be accomplished is by Modi personally handling this new Central Ministry, handholding and overseeing the performance of the states, esp the BJP-ruled states. But given the onerous responsibility of running the Central government effectively, Modi won’t have time for this under the current arrangement.
One good option may be for Modi to appoint Yogi as the Deputy PM, mentoring him to take on most of the PM’s role after the 2024 elections (delegating most of the Ministries except, maybe, External Affairs).
Modi could then spend the best part of his quality time on supporting the 28 states and 8 UTs, esp the large North Indian states that need enormous help.
Sure enough, the BJP should find another good CM for UP, but that will be needed someday, anyway. If BJP identifies one after the 2024 elections, Modi will be available to mentor him.
Several key areas require attention to enhance the performance of the states, some of which are:
- Minimizing the economic disparity between northern, western, eastern, and southern states, esp in the areas of education, skill development, healthcare, manufacturing, services, and agriculture.
- Minimizing corruption and enhancing the personal integrity of all the CMs and ministers.
- Fostering better leadership, esp of CMs
Some may question the feasibility of such an experiment, but such planned and controlled situations are the best ways to experiment. This could help cultivate India’s future national and state-level leadership.
If only the per capita GDP of many of the large states could be brought close to even 75% of the levels of southern states (which have many natural and legacy advantages, which is another article for another day), the national GDP growth would jump to two digits.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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