Sree Iyer: Namaskar and welcome to episode number 102 of Daily Global Insights. Today is February 19th and I have with me Sridhar Chityalaji my co-host. Sridharji, welcome to PGurus Channel one more time. And what do we have today for our viewers, Sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar and good morning. We have some very interesting items on the domestic front. We have seen the immigration policy coming into effect. We are also going to discuss the reversal of the climate change policy that was in place. We are also going to talk about the earmarks, which is the favourite, spending bill that Democrats typically use to advocate their preferences and choices in terms of where they direct some of the funding. So, it’s a very interesting kind of domestic and then the global side, we have Covid, we have Iran back in the discussions and then we have some interesting things from London that we are hearing on the China and then, on the markets and the economy, we are again seeing Janet Yellen unusual playing a very active role in what she sees as the path forward in terms of addressing some of the economic issues.
Sree Iyer: Sir, we start with the proposed plan of the Biden Administration to legalize about 11 million illegals over a period of eight years. And from what we have been reading about this, there is a path to normalization for those who also entered legally into the United States, so that is one point that is a bright spot in all this. So, Sridharji, the Customs and Border Patrol is now saying that they see a five-fold increase in illegals trying to enter into the United States. So, there is this always this danger, isn’t it that as soon as the United States start talking about normalizing illegal immigration, then there’s a whole surge of people coming in. How does the Biden Administration plan on combating that?
Sridhar Chityala: It’s very simple they’ve already said that they made three specific announcements that are relating to the point that you’re raising one, from zero tolerance to full tolerance, you know the border. So, therefore, previously they used to be anybody who is attempting will be pissed away. Now, we are saying border crossing is no longer illegal and each issue will be dealt with appropriately, that’s number one.
Number two, they have also established an asylum officer, you know who will dispense these issues in a very compassionate manner, it could be children left behind on the other side. It could be parents left behind on the other side. So, they say that you know, that would be dealt with very appropriate.
The third is that there seems to be a signal that has been given that those who are suffering in various parts of Central America, you know, they would be considered if you recall that they’re getting from El Salvador, from Guatemala there’s a whole set of people coming from within caravans making the way and stopped in the Mexican border. They have basically given a signal that they would consider and they again reverse the policy of President Trump. President Trump policy was that the Asylum Seekers cannot be dealt with on our border. They have to go back to the respective countries and apply for asylum in those countries. So, what we are now seeing is that the Biden Administration effectively opening up Pandora’s Box. There is immediate visibility of that. Mr Daniel who is the Customs and Border Patrol Chief in Cochise County in Texas has stated that they have seen, you know by a five-fold increase in these illegals trying to enter and unfortunately, many of them are traffickers, drug lords, criminal’s all trying to make their way. So, I think that there is going to be a problem that the United States has to contend with.
Sree Iyer: Sir, the Democrats might point out that the last time such an amnesty was provided it was done under Ronald Reagan and it was I think 1987 end or 1988. I was still a student in this country and here it was in the 80s, let me say later part of the 80s and there was no sucker for all the legally admitted applicants to the United States and there the requirement was that anyone who could prove that he or she had spent 90 days working in an agricultural farm got a green card. So, there is a precedent of something like this happening. So, people might say well, the last time the Republicans did it, there was no problem with that. But, now when the Democrats are doing here, there is a problem. So how does one look at this from a holistic point of view? If the Democrats are also finding a way to normalize people who are on H-1Bs and so on and so forth. Would that not be someone they say okay fine, the United States is taking cognizance of the reality and thereby acting, what are your thoughts, Sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think comparing Ronald Reagan’s, agro normalization of illegals who came in for farming and strawberry picking Etc, you know does not really correlate the present kind of policy. If you are talking about the present policy being the H-1B visas where the spouses were ineligible to work may be asked to work. Some of these things which are pending for 15-20-25 years in terms of normalization, these are people who are already here, working paying taxes accelerating their path or giving one time amnesty to convert them that’s fair. I also believe that these 11 million illegal people are here, so, there is no way that these people are going to be pushed back into wherever they are because I think to be fair to the Democrats they saying they have businesses, they have homes and they’re already working many of them are part-time labour. So, I think that the 11 million who are here and for a period of time or people who have unfortunately kids left on one side of the border versus the other of the parents. But, there is a rationale for accepting that as the normalization. Obama tried but unfortunately his focus in the first term when he had everything was on the Affordable Care Act and the jobs act. So, he more wasted most of his capital and he could not get it done in the second phase. This particular program is what you call zero tolerance to complete tolerance, as well as the normalization of illegal aliens. It’s actually creating rumbles in the Democratic Party as well, not just the Republicans because many of these people who have to re-contest elections in 2022 either in the House or the Senate are going to face the wrath because this is a wide-reaching reform in terms of transformative nature affecting these constituencies. So they believe that this is going to be problematic.
Sree Iyer: So, what we have now is a situation where there are concerns across the aisle and we must keep in mind, viewers, those of you who do not know this that the Congress re-elects its congressmen and women every two years. So, this is one of the challenges for them. They are in permanent election mode because as soon as you win one, you have to raise funding for the next one and so on and so forth. So, this paves way for people to influence decision-making and that’s why we have things in this state that they are in today. So let’s move on. So, now several GOP senators are asking for an investigation into Kumo’s handling of Covid and this is beginning to pick up momentum. In fact the mayor of New York City Bill Blasio, I think Bill Blasio, I am not 100% sure, how the last name is you can set me straight on that. He’s also now beginning to make noises that perhaps Kumo didn’t do the right thing. What is happening, sir? It’s your home turf.
Sridhar Chityala: It’s my home turf. We are very proud that we have are wonderful governor in Andrew Cuomo and we have a phenomenal mayor for Manhattan in the Mr De Blasio, you know and always there’s there are these kinds of subtle political rivalries or personality rivalries that exist. But, the fact remains that the Secretary of Cuomo has very spelt out that there was either willful or deliberate miscount of the number of deaths that happened in many of the hospitals and you know aged Care Homes. the fear was that if you report those numbers, it will face the wrath and then have a warrant AC/DC investigation. So therefore they suppress them out. But, there has been no formal what you call there’s no formal protest or there’s no common condemnation from either party and there is also neither discovery process as to why it has happened and what exactly is the punishment. It a very similar to what has happened in, you know, like Capitol Hill riots and other kinds of riots that have taken place. So, there’s one significant kind of mission. But, New York is a very deep blue liberal State and the United States rankled by so many different issues. It is kind of what you are hearing is only the political rumble especially around Manhattan around New York. And that’s about it is very unfortunate, if it is not investigated and the root causes not remedied.
Sree Iyer: Now five out of seven Senators who voted to impeach Trump are now facing censure in their respective States and only two have escaped it one is, of course, Mitt Romney and the other one, I’m not sure you can set me straight again here. So there is a general disapproval of the conduct of the Senators who voted to impeach Trump, isn’t it?
Sridhar Chityala: There is a general consensus amongst that Republicans. I think that is consistent with the polls and the general disposition towards President Trump and amongst the Republicans, we have seen several polls point out that the election was stolen, you know, that may not be the view of the Democrats. But at least within the Republican fraternity that seems to be the case, so, for these people to stand up and impeach and many of the Republicans were sympathetic to the town hall that happened on that day. But, they don’t accept the fact that this is all kind of Republican, so, therefore President Trump should be impeached nor there is sufficient evidence provided that you know, he did not wilfully inside the riots. So, therefore they may have Democrats may come up with your very partisan investigation come up with some kind of ruling but, it’s not going to change the mindset of the people. So naturally again, as you earlier pointed out many of these fellows are likely to be back in the House and Senate re-election. Cleverly, the guys who voted for impeachment, you know, and who are from their respective States one after the other they have announced or they had announced even prior there would not be re-contesting their Senate positions, so, that kind of puts in context as to why they chose, what they chose to do.
Sree Iyer: Interesting point there and it’s absolutely right. So let’s take a look at what is happening in the stimulus package and statement from Janet Yellen. First off, speaker Nancy Pelosi thinks that next week the new stimulus package bill will be passed. It’s at least 1.9 trillion, and we don’t know what kind of earmarks are going to get attached to it, and she thinks that she can pass this with or without Republicans help. The stimulus is going to benefit everyone including Republicans. So my point here is that if it benefits the nation, why would the Republicans not want to vote for it? Where do you see the resistance? And if there is resistance, what is the reason the Republicans are pushing back.
Sridhar Chityala: Let me correct, the Republicans are not saying that they will push back on the 1.9 trillion stimuli. It has already cost them the Georgia state, Georgia senate elections and President Trump was emphatic in stating that, especially the $1,400 incremental because 2000 was reduced to 600. That’s how the bill was being meddled around with. So now they have brought this $1400 back. $600 was in the 910 million recoveries and rescue package – R&R package. So I think many of them are aligned with this $1.2 – $1.5 trillion number that encompasses all these things that you’re talking about, which are $1,400, $600 increase on the unemployment, child credits etc, where the contention comes is around this local administration plus some of these earmarks that were plucked in and basically, the Republicans feel this is the way by which the stimulus is being used by the Democrats to clean up mismanaged local and state administration that has overspent and their budgets are out of whack. That’s where the descent is, which is why Goldman Sachs also pointed out the stimulus package could turn out to be 1.5 – 1.6 but Democrats have stated, ‘no way, even if it is with only 4 – 5 Democrats in the house because that’s the difference, five Democrats in the house, we will pass the bill with zero Republican votes. They have effectively taken out all the caveats that Republicans have put in place. That’s all out, and so 1.9 as you correctly use the word if you add the earmarks, which is very likely, earmarks are going to be back then you’re going to see this, as I predicted, somewhere close to $2.1 trillion, but minimum 1.9.
Sree Iyer: Now, Janet Yellen has sort of complimented on what has been playing around in the House and Senate saying that the stimulus is not enough. So are we looking at a scenario that there might be one more package even after this jumbo $2.1 trillion package? What is Janet Yellen signalling, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Yes, she is saying that we need another stimulus package to support more than 15 million people who are behind on their rents, 24 million adults and 12 million youngsters who do not have enough food on the table, who needs help by way of incremental stimulus. And she is saying that quite a few don’t have employment. I don’t know whether this later is going to include these illegal people, they have to be harmonized. So she’s saying that there is a larger budget coming which is called the Spend and Investments package that encompasses addressing this specific constituency, including small businesses, by the way. She’s also talking about small businesses needing more money, but including infrastructure spends and education. Now, infrastructure. we had under the Jobs Care Act in 2009 was a disaster. A lot of money close to 1 trillion was spent. I’m not sure if that 1 trillion was effectively used. So we’re going to have the other kind of the pen Peeve project of the Democrats on this infrastructure again. They may find their way to make sure some of the local administrations and councils are fixed as a part of that. As part of the education, what they’re going to do is create, build more schools, open up free education or I think there was also a different kind of classification of schools that are likely to come up rather than one single Public School System. All this is part of the wider package that she is hinting at. We’ve already said that these 2.1 which now makes it close to $5.4 trillion-plus package, now there could be another $3 – $4 trillion package coming that encompasses this infrastructure, education, clean energy, and Green Accord and joining these are the International Global Institutions such as WHO, UN and so on. So all these things are coming within the parameters of what Janet Yellen is pointing out. So we could have a huge blowout as a result of this big number that the United States is staring at.
Sree Iyer: Other news is that the United States is saying it is willing to sit down and talk with Iran on the nuclear treaty that was signed. So essentially, that is one more policy reversal that the Biden Administration is attempting to do and we are going to continue to watch the crude prices going up, I’m talking about Markets because we need to kind of wrap up our program today and we also are getting news from Texas that even though power is restored there are still many other teething problems, especially in the oil front. Sridharji, when do you think the Texas oil industry is going to get back on its feet.
Sridhar Chityala: The governor has stated that by February 21st they would see the phased recovery of not only the oil and energy industry but the restoration of the power. The weather has been a little kind and they’re able to go and service the equipment. It’s a two-phased approach, one is to fix the current problem and restore power. There’s also been some report that people have died. close to 100,000 people have died of carbon monoxide poisoning which typically happens from some of these locations. So he’s talking about 2 phases, one is to fix the immediate problem and the Second is basically to come up with a long-term policy so that this is not repeated, weathering of the pipes, testing of various equipment that has vulnerable and making sure that they have preventive mechanisms in place. Third, I think which is far more is the demand-supply management. There is a belief that the demand-supply management if people are not aware Texas is a fully deregulated energy market where people buy Power from others and distribute based on a demand-supply basis. So they feel that incremental reserve should be kept and that condition should be put in place without sacrificing the deregulated market and to mitigate the long-term measures that cannot happen overnight. But that is the long term plan that the Texas governor, Mr Abbott has been speaking about.
Sree Iyer: Well viewers, I have been mentioning this, there is a new membership drive that PGurus is undertaking. When you are watching this video just by the side of the Subscribe button on the top right corner of the screen you will see a join button and we encourage you to join because we are going to provide additional content, additional programming that is going to be made available to members. This is information stuff that they don’t teach in schools. You will benefit a lot from the information that we are giving and I must also tell you that this program, the DGI, we’re not planning on making this members-only. This is a News segment, this will continue and with your support, we can grow from here on. I am very happy to note that the rate at which subscriptions are happening has now increased. However, we are still far away from our mark of 250,000, which is our near-term goal to reach there as quickly as possible. And we request you if you like this program to recommend us your family and friends. To subscribe to our channel, doesn’t cost you any money. But it does help put the word out there to many subject matter experts that here is a channel that is serious, that is Centrist as you have been noticing. Even though people keep saying that you guys are right I don’t believe we are. We are just covering the News that others are not covering. That doesn’t make us right-wing. We are Center, we are for news and that is the goal here.
Thank you very much, Sridharji as always a pleasure to talk to you and have you share your thoughts on this podium as we start becoming more and more of a regular fare because now we’ve crossed a hundred episodes. We are going to be going on marching towards the 200. We are also going to have fireside chats every so often on specific topics where we’ll be bringing in some more subject matter expert and in order for us to do that we need your help, please subscribe to our Channel and please donate to our cause and also join our membership. As always we will be back again next week on Monday same time, the same place. Thank you very much. Namaskar.
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar and have a wonderful weekend everybody. Thank you.
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