#EP68 Georgia Senate runoff trends, what will Mike Pence do today and US-China faceoff

#DailyGlobalInsights #EP68 Georgia Senate runoff trends, what will Mike Pence do today and US-China faceoff

Sree Iyer: Namaskar and welcome to episode number 68, today is January the 6th 2021. Welcome Sridhar Chityalaji, we are going to talk about a lot of things, today is a very eventful day isn’t it

Sridhar Chityala: Good morning sir, good morning to everybody, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are or good night if you happen to be on the other side of the hemisphere. Yes, we have a lot to cover. I think we are reaching the climax point in terms of the outcome. We had the Georgia elections yesterday, the results have come in. I think one is official Raphael Warnock victory against Kelly Loeffler, Perdue v/s Ossoff. Meralex tending towards an outright kind of, some little bit of votes but, one can predict that both the Senate seat to go to the Democrats. So, its massive coup 0.58 that’s been pulled out by the Democrats in the Georgia which is historically a red state but, there is no surprise given what happened in the state of Georgia in terms of the Presidential elections. Lot was at stake more than 400 to 450 million dollars of money at least 400 million is a number that makes headline goes into State election. And it was called as the battle for America and battle for progressive versus free-market capitalism, the power that was a deterrent in the Senate will now effectively the all three branches if nothing is contested depending on what happens on January 6. All three branches will align and setting the stage for a very interesting day today in terms of determining the outcome of the most important presidential election itself.

Sree Iyer: Viewers yesterday, we release a hangout with a Georgia volunteer who works for the US impact, who claimed that up to 400 million dollars were in play in this Senate runoff races. Think about it, two people running races 400 million that is close to 200 million dollars that was spent by Democrats. Now, that kind of money almost makes me think that the US is also becoming more like an election in India, where they buy basically by votes. I’m just saying, I’m not saying that that happened or not. I’m not on the ground to make that claim but, the insane amount of money that has been spent is just mind-boggling. So, today is the D-day in terms of what the vice president Mike Pence is going to do. It could be the single most eventful thing that he ever did in his tenure as a vice president, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: It is a single most significant event ever to be done. I won’t use, ever to be done. There have been two presidents as but in the most recent history a vice-president, assuming the mantle, including the course at missed a set of potentially conflicting scenarios that is presented to him in the conduct of the joint houses for the final counting and certification of the president.

Sree Iyer: So, now it is expected that in the House, there will be a challenge for the results for six states and in Senate, it’s going to be for three states. Do you have any updates on those?

Sridhar Chityala: I think as of now, you know much of the opposition is coming from the House and there is sufficient noise emanating from the Senate, but, they could be holding things up their sleeves until the last minute. So, clearly, there’s three Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz and Kelly biggs from Arizona. So, we have Arizona, we have Pennsylvania and Loeffler had set for Georgia. So, I don’t know whether that’s going to qualify because she was the one who raised for Georgia. So, therefore, whether it is two-three or four, we don’t know certainly Jim Jordan and Ted Cruz obviously Josh Hawley be leading the Senate kind of the objections. So, the way the process would begin is that all the Joint houses would meet under the vice president presiding over the joint houses and declaring that they are all here for this purpose and the question will be asked and then they will by turn by state, they will start the opening up the votes.

Then, the question will be asked whether people have any objection, that’s when these objections and then they will break in the debate starts. We talked about this yesterday. And then one of the questions which you had asked which I can answer is the President had said, we will present the most compelling evidence, where exactly, the President would come in and how he’s going to present the evidence in front of the people, still, there is no agenda item and how that could be brought in. Even the legal team, which said that they would have an opportunity to present, one, is the senate, for example. When Jim Jordan is the only person who said, what is the objective? The objective is twofold, one, we want to highlight to the American people that the legislative branch is the only branch which is mandated by Constitution to conduct, frame the rules, conduct the election certify and send it. What we’re going to demonstrate is through the process in these seven states that there has been a consistent interference by the judicial and executive branch almost till the last day and basically violating the norms. Now, you go back to the Judiciary, to kind of validate what they did. They are not going to validate, what they did, it is like going to Supreme Court and saying, you know, you enacted the law and is saying, why did you enact this law? We want to go again. So, there’s nothing, they went to Supreme Court and Supreme Court has basically stated solve this at the legislative level, you know, I’m not going to be an arbitrator between the legislature and the Supreme Court. So, on the procedural process and on the mandate of the Constitution, this is what people have mistaken and assumed all the cases are dismissed.

The Cases are dismissed because the Supreme Court doesn’t want to be involved and entangle in what is defined as a legislative process. So, a legislature can overrule and say hey you don’t have a business, this is my constitutional obligation. One of the things that Jim Jordan is going to point out is Michigan, the state legislature if you recall did not meet because they said some threat of violence. So, the Republican senators were kept out and there were set of armed guards outside, they’re going to point that out as well in this kind of presentation. This is what Jim’s view is to say. Ok, here’s the first strand that has not been confirmed. What’s the second strand? The second strand is do we see fraud? Yes. In three strands, we’ve repeated without being repetitive which we covered that yesterday, what are the three areas? So, therefore, this is the scope of the discussion and presentation, at least in the Senate which we are clear.

In the house, how it takes shape, we don’t know as yet in terms of how this debate is going to be. But Nancy Pelosi has announced her 4-5 people who would be defending the elections against Mo Brooks campaign and there’s more than a 100-105 or even 70 plus House Republicans are ready to mount their offence on the invalidity of the elections.

Sree Iyer: Meanwhile, there has been a training intensification of the US Marines for a possible conflict with China off of the Japanese Islands. This is something that has been evolving over the last few days. What is the conflict and this is something new, I think because we’ve been talking about Taiwan, we’ve been talking about the LAC across India and then we have also been talking about the South China Sea. This is something new. Can you shed a little bit more light on this, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think that it’s fascinating, I don’t know, I’m sure that you must have picked up, depending on where you are in the mainstream media. Xi allows few things one is, you know, economic expansion and covid in 2021 as a priority, but he also made one important announcement. He asked his PLA to get ready for a war on the 70th year anniversary of this CCP (Communist Party formation) 70th year. So, therefore, where they will fight the war? Potentially, there are three scenarios probably that this was brewing, this was coming. So the US Armed forces have been training the Marines here have been training of some islands and they were very candid. We are preparing for a potential war with China. So, we are training ourselves rather than sitting in front of computers at simulating and so on we are here on the ground and you know getting ourselves acclimatized in case there is a growth there is a war with China. So it’s a very interesting observation given all the skirmishes that we have. China skirmishes in the region, China skirmishes in the Himalayan Kingdom, China skirmishes in the South China Sea. The arrests profound arrests that are going on within Hong Kong, you know, there is definitely kind of some flashpoint looming in that specific region.

Sree Iyer: And to take a look at other parts of the globe, India plans to deploy nuclear-capable Agni missiles that can be pointed towards Beijing. This is a new development.

Sridhar Chityala:  It is, I think that India has now recognized that in most of the flashpoints the withdrawal did not occur as contemplated. If you recall there was this and then they said they would have an orchestrated withdraw, didn’t happen. And I think India played this game very well, they occupied the Strategic Heights and so on. So, therefore, India is played this game very well knowing that China is not going to budge and they only want us to withdraw and slack and they said no, we’re not moving, unless you kind of move. So, now they feel that China has now got its surface-to-air missile batteries plus it has moved new drones and they have equipped themselves with their battery of Air Force in the border. And they also enhanced the capacity in Tibet, which is one of the main basis for them to come from that side of the border. So India is now saying, ok fine, you’re doing that, we have got Brahmos missile batteries, we got the Rafale fleet. I think they also ordered some 83 more light Sukhoi Jets which are armed with Brahmos missiles. So, we are now kind of you know, we are ready. Then, we have Chinook helicopters. Then, we also going to lease the planes from the ships of the United States, India has also got drones deployed. So, this is why India is saying you want to do that? We also have a full kind of capabilities, we are prepared. So, the most recent one is you want to fully load as deterrence because this is nuclear, there’s a first strike, there is a China-India China agreement on the use of nuclear missiles. So, India doesn’t use a right of the first choice, India uses only as a deterrent. So, India says I will now have this Agni five missiles loaded with nuclear-capable missiles and in case you try to do something then we can apply as a deterrent mechanism. It’s a very dangerous development, but it’s also a reflection that India is prepared to step up and not be submissive. And the Xi Jinping statement is not very helpful to the world in terms of openly saying to his army PLA to get ready for a war in 2021. So there are only three-four areas where they can fight a war. They can’t come to the United States and fight a war, they may do that in different ways. But as far as the physical war is concerned you are talking about Taiwan for which Suga had said Taiwan is a red flag both to Biden as well to Trump. While we have this we also have Nimitz which we covered yesterday, parked in the Middle East in the Persian Gulf with uranium enrichment going on and they have reached 20% capacity for the IAEA plus Iran threatening President Trump, saying ‘you will be dead in a few days and potential flashpoints with the new accord between Qatar and the three nations in West Asia.

Sree Iyer: Yes, that is a significant development in the long-standing dispute between Qatar and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been resolved. Both sides signed it off yesterday. So that augers that West Asia is going to find more peace, while we are at it is also an interesting development from Nepal. Nepal’s foreign minister is going to be visiting India is another sign that relation between India and Nepal are improving and you add to this the fact that the CCP leaders were rebuffed and they were sent back shows that I think Nepal has made up its mind that it needs to align itself with India. What are your thoughts?

Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think that there were two things that happened, one is I think far more than India that vast number of the Nepalese don’t like to see their Hindu state to be, I mean there’s a lot of people in streets talking about trying to alter that force on that with the Communist Regime. So there’s a lot of opposition. That’s number one.

Number two is that they recognize that in some of the Border posts occupied there were probably a lot of complaints from either the farmers or peasants in that specific region. And so the Communist Party itself, which was brokered, the piece that was brokered between Oli and Prachanda that was basically patch meal and that seems to have tethered and Oli is also recognizing that he can sustain this type of not only the internal pressure but the from the pressure of the people so, therefore, all he’s saying is ‘I’ll wait for my turn when I get my turn because he suspended the parliament and new elections are to be held so and then they started there were visits by Indian National Security Advisor, there’s also visit by the head of the Defense Forces. I don’t know whether there was a visit by External Affairs Minister, but certainly those two and then subsequently, there’s been visits from the Nepalese side. So the story is that there are now prepared themselves. They say we need now to work out bilateral understanding because India is a significant support player to Nepal. So my view is that things seem to be patching up and should there be, and also there were these recent discussions that Modi held with Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, in terms of integrating as an economic zone and providing logistics and those kinds of support. So it looks like Nepal is trying to patch up and at least perceptively and see if should there be a war then which way it goes. How much the United States has played a role, we don’t know, but I will not be surprised if the US has played a role. It’s very significant that $1.2 billion of that $55 billion of unfunded or the delineated commitments is actually targeted towards spending and selection of Dalai Lama and then also helping the Tibetan Government in Exile in India in the establishment of its Democratic process. So there is money that is also gone in by way of functional support. Chinese do not give the money free. They extract a significant price whenever they give money, whereas the United States grants these aid only as a strategic partner so that could also be at play, sir.

Sree Iyer: Let’s take a look at what’s happening on the covid scenario. Now the covid cases are rising to about 86.7 million. We have 23 million active cases. We also have told on our channel that Borris Johnson will not be visiting India. This happened about 10 days ago. So there you go. Again, you get tomorrow’s news today from PGurus. I’m just blowing my own trumpet here. The interesting thing here is this claim by the WHO chief that he is disappointed that China did not allow the WHO inspectors to visit coronavirus people to go in and take a look at the labs. Should we attach any significance to this statement or is it something just like you do this and I’ll also rattle the sabre.

Sridhar Chityala: I think with defeat looming for Trump, China suddenly finds itself that it is the unilateral power in existence. In the period 2009-2016, it consolidates its power when the United States was distracted and gave a free rein, that’s when the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific all these expansion events occurred unpreserved and the United States was embroiled with what is the right phrase that I can use, the Syrian conflict, the Iraqi conflict and the new Revolution that brought tons of refugees into Europe and all over the place and we’re so distracted and then, of course, we also had the Libyan, so-called Libyan War at that point of time Libya, Algeria, Benghazi there’s a lot of things that went on at that point of time. So what Xi is saying now is that ‘I am the boss. I dictate so, therefore, you guys are not going to come in and basically audit and investigate and tell me what I did wrong. I did no wrong. And so, therefore, there’s nothing for you to come and do.

Sree Iyer: On covid, India has also approved its own vaccine now and it is also working on an app that will monitor the country, how things are going on. It’s called CoWin and there will be more data that will be published in the days and weeks to come. This is certainly a good development on part of India. Right? I mean India is now getting ready to be the vaccine supplier and for the whole worl

Sridhar Chityala: Tremendous, very very positive development for India. Two vaccines got approved, I think there’s probably two more in the pipeline and they are also now contemplating a vaccine which is a direct insertion into your nasal, which gives you an immediate or much faster recovery process and also mitigates the need for injections. Brazil is the latest country which has signed up with India. They were going down the Pfizer route than they looked at Moderna, but they are now changed, so Brazil becomes the latest country to sign up with India. Of course, there are quite a few other countries which have signed up including some of the European countries. As you know, Sputnik the Russian one is going to be also made in India. So India is clearly on that biopharma, biotech sector. I think it is going to be the vaccine lab of the world or the vaccine manufacturer of the world. So clearly two sectors in mobile and covid vaccine scenario India looks better position to take things forward. I think India also has a tremendous job relative to the rest of the world in terms of containing the virus. Generally, when you talk to people there seem to be freely moving about unfearful of the consequences of this and this is the only country that is open, there’s no other news in the world, everywhere, everybody is shut because of the covid, especially the strand-2, the strand-2 virus is now even in New York and it is now sweeping the rest of the world. I think close to 60,000 or 70,000 cases in one day detected in the UK. So it seems to be engulfing the rest of the world.

Sree Iyer: And we will keep you posted on all this and more and let’s take a quick look at markets as to how they are reacting to the Georgia Senate runoff race. What are the markets telling us?

Sridhar Chityala: There are 4 important readings that we see, first and foremost, for the first time which we have been publishing, which we didn’t put today is the treasury rates have gone past 1%. We have been tracking it since it was about 0.5 – 0.6. So it’s steady it went up. What it means is that a lot of money is going to come in and there is going to be currency depreciation. Thet’s are number one.

Oil prices for the first time went up. Crude that is about $50, and it settled just below 50 right now. And so, therefore, that’s the second parameter which means there’s more money being put in so obviously there is cash in hand. So people can spend little more and therefore they can allocate that to the fuel, that’s number two.

The third parameter, the third indicator that is coming through is from Goldman Sachs, which is reporting they can see the Senate now potentially in the control of the Democrats. An injection of $600 billion more as an immediate release for $600 – $2000 and they may even extend it to unemployment and all those kinds of things which were not within the purview. So that’s the third parameter.

Fourth is the markets which everybody expected a dip of close to 1,000 points, they have not still digested, there is a marginal up in the Dow and there is almost neutral in S&P and NASDAQ. And so what happens in the next couple of days, we will know, how the market absorbs. In the meanwhile, if you are a Bitcoin holder, just in the last week, you have gone from somewhere we tracked it 21 – 22 now we are at 35,000. Somebody is making a lot of money and a lot of the money is actually, without going into the technicalities, a lot of the money is coming from institutional investors and those who feel, who have sat on the margins taking the cash and putting the money into Bitcoin which is nothing more than a pay tool. Its nothing more, it is not a tradable commodity not like gold, it’s not like oil. So, therefore, a lot of money and so it is driving the prices up.

Sree Iyer: With that we bring today’s segment to a close. We’ll be watching what’s going to play out in the Senate and in the Congress today and tomorrow, we’ll have a cracker of a session where we will analyze the decision that will be made by Mike Pence today and also some more data on what is going to happen on the Georgia Senate races. Clearly, one seat appears to be trending Democrat, the other one is very very close. It may result in a recount, but be that as it may, we still have to wait for this process to finish. Thanks for joining, please subscribe to our channel and donate to our cause. Namaskar. Thank you very much, Sridharji.

Sridhar Chityala: Thank you so much and have a wonderful day and an exciting day ahead for us and an exciting tomorrow for us.





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