Sree Iyer: Hello and welcome to episode 56 of daily Global insights with Sri and Sree. I am your host Sree Iyer and joining me is Sridhar ChityalaJi. SridharJi, namaskar and welcome to PGurus channel.
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar and very good morning to everybody on the Christmas Eve Friday.
Sree Iyer: Sir, there’s a lot happening on the US elections. First off, the Director of National Intelligence, John Radcliffe’s report indicates that there was foreign interference in the elections. Can you kind of walk us through, what are all the things that are happening? There was this 2018 law, according to which there is a time limit in which the DNI can weigh in on the US elections. So, can you please help us understand what is going on sir?
Sridhar Chityala: I think there’s a context for this executive order that was passed in 2018. If you go back to 2016, the Democrats consistently made an allegation that there was Russian interference in the elections, which resulted in Trump receiving undo favour as a result of the interference and they and the elections going one way versus the other way, especially in battleground states. So, in 2018, he passed an executive order or executive action order which effectively states that as the elections are conducted within 45 days from the date of the election, which is November 3rd. They would be an independent report filed by the head of National Investigation Agency or Department of National investigations with a bunch of security and intelligence officials and if the report concludes that there was interference by this particular group. Then, the elections can be set aside that executive action was passed.
So, November 3rd, if you take as a cut-off date then December 18th, which is today is the cut-off date to pass this report. Now, they were lots of news items that the report is ready, the report is not ready. The report is ready and delayed because few intelligence officials have not signed off on that report etc.,
It appears that the report is ready; this has been confirmed by John Radcliffe himself in a few TV channels. The delay is attributed to some of the people signing off. It looks like the report has also been seen by the President and the conclusions are there was foreign interference in the 2020 elections, Okay, there was foreign interference in the elections. There is also an adjacent report which came in, the expect is Dominion software, which was independently assessed and validated had a greater than 3% misallocation to Mr Biden. Now, mind you, these are statements and these are documented and when it is released, needless to say, it will be contested but the facts are that these two things remain which is namely the interference as well as the Dominion software audits confirming greater than 3%. And adjacent to this story and Antrim County in Michigan confirms breaking news, last night that it is correct that Trump won, not Biden and by a margin of I think 4000-5,000 votes. So what that is going to happen in terms of looking at those numbers in Michigan and whether it would be extended remains to be seen.
So, from a constitutional point of view, the 18th deadline is met, the delay is only attributed to the intelligence official signing off, the Snippets of the report seems to have been shared. So, therefore this is another independent parallel track in terms of various milestones. We make the December 14th milestone, we have now more on less on December 18th milestone as we now make our way to the January 6th Milestone.
Sree Iyer: So, now how many states are essentially objecting or in plain terms of like not exactly in consonance with the Electoral College decision, sir.
Sridhar Chityala: There are six states that we listed, the two other states which are making their way into this is a state of Colorado which is also doing an independent assessment and audit, then, the eighth state that is coming into purview is New Mexico. New Mexico as well is now investigating the integrity of the election. So, we are now talking about eight states.
Let’s also remind that Sidney Powell is fighting for the validity and the audit of the elections across the country. She’s not just doing for only for eight states or six States. She’s saying that Dominion software has Smartmatic analytical systems etc. You know, they have been manually tuned, there are manipulatable, they are accessible and they’re collusive and collaborative interest of stakeholders of these systems and software, which can prejudice the outcome of the elections. And there is a fair amount of investigation that has been done by her and slowly those reports are beginning to trickle in.
Sree Iyer: So, there was also a 36-page report by Peter Navarro and can you shed some light on what his findings are, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: It’s amazing. Peter Navarro’s report, I’ve seen the glimpses of it and waiting for the full report and we will analyze in PGurus the report and we will share the findings. He has through eight charts, he has demonstrated, he calls it as the great steal and he calls it as an election which we can ill afford to have, which is effective to state is laid down the principles that this election was manipulated, this election had interference. And he goes state-by-state around six-seven parameters. He points out how exactly the manipulation occurred in the pattern and primarily again, he goes to this system. He goes into this ballot drop boxes, he goes into duplicate ballots. He also goes into the validation that supposed to have occurred did not occur. The signature verification that is supposed to have occurred has not occurred. Remember we pointed out in Georgia still that 600,000 drop-in balance, which is supposed to have been digitally scanned and the record to be delivered back, only 15% has been delivered still 85 % is missing. So you have all these instances that are documented and So, it’s not just a piece of somebody sitting down and saying, oh something has happened. Now, mind you, it doesn’t mean the Democrats are going to keep quiet, Democrats are going to come back and that would justify, all this is wrong and I just don’t see, when you look at some of this evidence. There has to be something, you know, a major drama to have been enacted to nullify this whole thing. So, anecdotal that there is a lot of people now coming out with the evidence, empirical will be presented. And of course, what happens remains to be seen, we still have the January 6th deadline.
Sree Iyer: So some may point to Supreme Court saying that oh, you know, the Republican team keeps losing in Supreme Court and therefore the matter has been laid to rest. What are the thoughts on that, sir? And it really is Supreme Court looking at the content of all these findings? Are all they just ruling on the procedural things that might have happened?
Sridhar Chityala: I think what Supreme Court is saying is, you know, we’re not in the business of conducting elections, right? So therefore if the Dominion software is wrong, you know, we’re not going to sit here invalidate and verify, you know, it is up to the agencies to independently validate and corroborate. So, the Supreme Court is about the interpretation of the Constitutional law. So, what they’re saying is about procedural issues, what they are not stating is the material conduct of the outcome of the elections. So, that they are saying it has to be done outside for which you have state legislators, then you have the Senate and the House, which does the counting and reconciliation. If these particular bodies are unable to do their specific functions as part of the legislative and the executive process then how can Supreme Court come and say, we are in the business of conducting elections, you know we will conduct independent enquiries by ourselves, we will ask them to present reports etc. Only when there is a lack of resolution amongst these various bodies, then we may see the Supreme Court kind of taking it up. So, in the case of President Trump’s team and Sidney Powell’s team which they have taken is? What they’re saying is they are trying to get a ruling. Suppose Supreme Court, which is let’s say is run by majority Democrats, they say look they are not giving us the opportunity for the due process to investigate just dismissing. So we are asking you to intervene and give the directive to complete the process which is either validating the invalid votes, validating the duplicate votes, assessing the integrity of the drop boxes. So, they’re asking the Supreme Court to intervene and to make sure that the process is compiled, they are not asking Supreme court to say, pass a verdict, this election is null and void. What Supreme Court is saying is I can’t go there as yet, right, it is up to the appropriate bodies to do that and people are mistaking this as an interpretation that Supreme Court has dismissed the Trump’s case. It has dismissed the Trump case to pass a verdict, but what people are asking for Supreme Court is just look at this and say, hey, you know you guys have hastily passed for example Ken Starr, you know he is very famous in a prosecutor, he did the entire prosecution as a special counsel and proved Bill Clinton is guilty, in the going back to 2000.
Sree Iyer: Monica Lewinsky’s case,
Sridhar Chityala: Yeah Monica Lewinsky’s 1999. So, the story is here is the Ken Starr is saying What Pennsylvania Supreme Court has done in consultation with the executive branch is violated the norms which are enacting the rules and procedures, that should only be the legislative body, which is namely the Pennsylvania legislature. So what they’re saying is that please overrule, then what happened is Sam Alito said, you know to keep the two votes separate and then the Supreme Court basically went one way in Pennsylvania and then went the other way, which is to say no, we will count all the words that came after November 3. I mean we are talking about 1.2 million votes in Pennsylvania, that’s a material number. So, the story is it is in those circumstances, they are asking that directive to be passed. So, the legislature couldn’t agree and then they sent, what they call dual electors. So Republican sent votes to President Trump, the Democrats sent word to Biden the State Certified but these dual voting which now has been embraced by all Six States demonstrates that there is a remedy available for Trump through the legal process and the legal process continues until it goes to the House and Senate for reconciliation and recount on January 6th. When he does Senate has already conducted its own independent inquiry, people forget now, there are eight members for from either side house. Four House member and four members from Senate, who actually can raise objections and warrant that there is a discussion in the House and Senate in the conduct of the election, questioning the integrity only one and one is needed. We have now eight and that list may grow, besides there are 104 senators from either from House and Senate on you know from the Republican side who are saying that the validity of the election needs to be, you know contested. So, therefore, it is definitely going to go into account what happens on January 6. We don’t know as yet. Mike Pence will preside over which he has confirmed. Mike Pence will preside over the January 6th session and should that go into this voting pattern and the election is declined, then it will be one state one vote would be the default rule for the Constitution that will be the final. So, you have a count, the count is validated by the State Legislature, from State Legislature, it comes to House and Senate. In House and Senate, either, it is accepted or recounted or recounted and accepted or it is contested through this particular process state and then in and then the House and Senate will overrule and go with casting the votes for determining who the president is from January 20th. And that voting is one vote per state only. It doesn’t matter how many delegates are there per state or how large the state is whether it’s California or whether it is Louisiana or whether it is Kentucky. They all only get one vote. In that 30 votes are with the Republicans and 20 or so with Democrats. So this is a very little hot potato sitting there. But in the meanwhile, you also have this executive action, which can table an independent report and state that there is interference. That also can de-certify this election.
Sree Iyer: Now we know for a fact that in 1960 Hawaii did send a dual slate of electoral college voter. So there is a precedence of having had that. Sir, do you remember if there was ever a one vote per state clause of constitution exercised in its choice of the president in the past? Do you know if it happened in the past?
Sridhar Chityala: I think that there was one instance and I can’t recall my memory of the specifics here. I think this is going back not in this particular century when I said this century I’m talking about the 1900s. So I think it goes back to some 1800s that’s how this law came into effect and we can research and
Sree Iyer: We’ll take a look at it later. There are no worries. I was just trying to see if there is any precedence.
Sridhar Chityala: There is a precedence, I’m telling you there definitely is precedence. Otherwise, there’s no law right, so there is a precedence.
Sree Iyer: So viewers we are going to have a special program as all this data comes and we have had a chance to sort it all out simplify it so people can understand what exactly is a play here. We are probably going to do it either over the weekend or early part of next week as much as soon as we have all the data that we can present you in a cogent form. So stay tuned on that one. So the next big topic that we’re going to talk about is covid. The covid vaccine’s performance and the statements that are coming out of various so-called specialists and where do things stand today, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Well, let’s start with the positive. The positive side is the second vaccine got approved yesterday, which is Moderna that FDA panel approved it as for emergency contingent use. That’s very good news, and Moderna has also now been embraced by other countries including Japan and also India is looking at Moderna as well. But I think India will go with its three vaccines and many countries adjacent to India are looking at using their respective, India’s infrastructure. Russians are going with Sputnik. The Chinese are going with Sinovac. So, each version is at play. But what are two specific observations? The two observations are one, Europe seems to be in the grip now of the escalating covid situation in its second phase. Emmanuel Macaron got it, so a whole bunch of leaders who are with him have gone into self-quarantine and they’re moving into shutdowns. Germany, Holland, Spain, the UK said, they would probably open for Christmas. But otherwise, they are in shut down as well. So you are seeing escalating cases, what you’re also seeing is escalating cases in Asia. So Japan, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, so you’re beginning to see now escalating cases across Asia. And when I say escalating cases, they may not be on a relative scale to the United States. The United States is 300 – 340 million people. For them, if you have 1000 cases per day or 5,000 cases per day, that’s a big number because they do not have the infrastructure to deal with.
So, therefore, I think that these countries are now moving in. The next question that you asked is about there seem to be some palatable reactions to it and for fear of panic and people are not explicit about what kind of reactions but people said, one has to be cognizant as one takes the vaccines but as you all know that whenever you take any medication, the medication is prone to have some side effects. So what the side effects are you have to watch it and take it forward. The one concern that I picked up from the news item is that it has not been rigorously tested given that it’s a very short span between April to November and we are talking about less than six months or seven months. So that is the story. So when you have six to seven months, when the rigour has not been there, there are questions that are being asked whether pregnant people should take it, children should take it, elderly should take it, whether people with the specific disorder should take it etc. Now, all that one can infer from here is that you exercise caution before one is taken. So you have one side that they are ready, many leaders are stepping up to take their vaccines just to demonstrate to the public it is safe and secure. Then you have a bunch of people who are resistant as well. So there’s always question marks around the vaccines and the and the and the intricacy and the intensity of the vaccines to mitigate the disease.
Now the question that’s come up is by taking the vaccine can you say you have developed enough community that it won’t recur again. The answer is no. They’re saying, take the vaccine but the preventive measures of putting on your masks and social distancing and the precautionary procedures that one has to take into account all of those things must continue. So, please don’t assume that you’ve taken the vaccine so you have just relieved yourself of everything else. So all this is causing some amount of tribulations because this whole wearing of the mask, you have had agitations in some countries where people asked ‘why are you forcing us to be a mask?’ There’s been an enormous amount of resistance even in the United States as to why we should wear masks. There’s an enormous amount of resistance around why we should have shutdowns. There are theories going all around because the duration of the gap between the when this epidemic came in versus the vaccines, you know, it’s too small, it’s the too narrow window of a time for anyone to be conclusive but everybody would like to err on the precautionary side.
Sree Iyer: Sir, let’s take a quick look at the markets and then we can wind up this segment. The stimulus package, I think it is still closing in, we have some numbers now. I think it is $600 per individual in terms of the next quantum. Can you please share some ideas on that some thought on that?
Sree Chityala: I think, Sree IyerJi, today is the deadline, they have to sit and finish. Otherwise, the government shuts down, at midnight today, ok; they have to find the money. And they have to find the solution and get this thing done. The principal contention seems to be around this support for local government and local kind of issues and also around how you deal with bankruptcies and procedures and so on around some of the state council’s and funding etc, but the principal package that we have consistently discussed remains the same. There was a question mark whether the direct payment cheques that go to individuals, whether it is $1200 which was the first package, whether it would be $1200 or $600. The answer is $600 emphatically on either side. They’re saying it is $600 the direct payment. Per child is $300 in a family. The unemployment insurance extension is $300, this is over above the state. That’s the current package that is under discussion. This is above over and above the PPP program for the small businesses. When you add all these numbers, you know, you are getting into close to 500 to 600 billion dollars or 700 billion dollars and then you add the covid programs and then the mass testing of the programs, which I think there was some contention on the level of testing but, I think they have come to the resolution on that roughly 85 to 80 billion dollars between the two sides Democrats and the Republicans. So, I have a feeling they will close this deal along with this deal. There is also the Brexit deal that needs to be closed in Europe so, that you know Brits, can also breathe a sigh of relief rather than stockpiling goods in the absence of deal when everything kind of begins to get blocked. So, my feeling is that is the $600 is the number, $300 the child, $300 is the extension of the unemployment plus the PPP program seems to be enshrined into the budget.
Sree Iyer: Thank you very much sir, and viewers have a nice weekend and we will be back most likely on Monday. It might be a longer segment than normal because we will have to go through all the developments that took place over the weekend, especially in terms of the Dominion software ownership and all the different finding, there is a lot of information that you’re going through. Remember we have still not shared the names of 1.95 million people who are supposed to be members of the Chinese Communist Party who are embedded in various countries in various organizations. Not a lot of information has come out on that front and that also it’s also something that we will be touching upon. So, no holidays for me and SridharJi. We are going to be here at your service giving you the truth as always the Namaskar and thanks for joining.
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar and have a wonderful day.
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