Exit polls or guessing game?

November 7, 2015

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]T[/dropcap]he findings of the exit polls for the Bihar election have unnerved both the principal contenders—Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. The exit polls have swung from one end to the other so much that it is impossible to make any sense of them. For instance, Today Chanakya has forecast 155 ± 11 in favour of the NDA, whereas Axis Research has given 169 ± 18 seats to the Grand Alliance. Both are showing a wave like situation, but in opposite directions. One wonders if the exits polls are merely guessing games.

In the backdrop of such crazy predictions, we take a look at the findings of the exit polls in 2010 Bihar polls. The study shows that out of three exit polls, two were way off the mark in predicting the outcome…

ABP-Nielsen	Exit Polls
2015 Assembly Elections
Alliance	Seats
NDA	108
MGB	130
Others	5
2010 Assembly Elections
	Exit Poll Projections
Alliance	Projected	Actual
JDU-BJP	150	206
RJD-LJP	57	25
2014 Lok Sabha Elections
	Exit Poll Projections
Party	Projected	Actual
JDU	5	2
NDA	21	31
RJD	14	4

C-Voter	Exit Polls
2015 Assembly Elections
Alliance	Seats
NDA	101-121
MGB	132-112
Others	9-10
2010 Assembly Elections
	Exit Poll Projections
Alliance	Projected	Actual
JDU-BJP	142-154	206
RJD-LJP	59-71	25
2014 Lok Sabha Elections
	Exit Poll Projections
Party	Projected	Actual
JDU	10	2
NDA	28	31
RJD	2	4

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]O[/dropcap]nly the survey conducted by the CSDS for the CNN-IBN and The Week got it right. They predicted JD (U)-BJP combine to win 187-203 seats and RJD-LJP 19-29 seats. This time CSDS survey has given a 4% lead to the Grand Alliance but refrained from predicting seats. However, its chief Sanjay Kumar has tweeted that the Grand Alliance could gain around 135 seats.

Those who know the poll research industry point out that most TV channels and newspapers are not willing to pay up enough money to carry out a genuine research. It must be noted though that NDTV claimed that their sampling size was 76,000 which is quite a high number. NDTV polling gives NDA a 2% lead.

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