
If Mayawati joins, it will be a win-win for the BJP and NDA
The Lok Sabha (LS) results have jolted the BJP, though without snatching power from it, fortunately.
While jolts came from several states like Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Rajasthan, the biggest shocker was from UP. BJP would have achieved an absolute majority if only the UP results, among the shocker states, had aligned with the exit poll predictions.
Caste coalitions appear to have started working against the BJP, at least in UP. Dalits constitute about 22% of the UP population and increasingly perceive themselves as powerless under both SP and BJP rule.
Mayawati once enjoyed significant support from Dalit voters, as well as a section of Muslims and others. She successfully stitched caste coalitions that made her Chief Minister for a full five-year term (2007-2012) and was CM thrice earlier for shorter periods.
Dalits, often more eager to defeat BJP or SP than to elect BSP, given BSP’s waning popularity, have been gradually drifting away from BSP, voting for SP or BJP to oppose the other party. This doesn’t give them the power share they want, but their tactical votes are able to defeat many BJP and SP candidates, even making these Dalit voters kingmakers sometimes.
More recently, Chandrashekar Azad, the founder-cum-chief of Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) (ASP), is emerging as the new Dalit icon in UP, having won a Lok Sabha seat this time, defeating BSP, BJP, and SP candidates.
Mayawati appears to be painting herself into a corner. She still has a pan-UP vote bank of a little less than 10%, which is not enough to win any seat but enough to make a difference in alliance with BJP or SP.
If BJP helps resurrect Mayawati’s political career by inducting her into NDA and the Union Cabinet, and even offering one or two berths in the UP Cabinet, she may regain her support base among Dalits and possibly attract some tribals too.
This would be a win-win for both BJP/NDA and BSP. This move would blunt the challenge posed by the I.N.D.I. Alliance in UP, led by SP, and also by Azad, thereby helping BSP in UP and BJP/ NDA across the country.
Towards this end, the BJP should invite BSP to be part of the NDA. Mayawati could be made a Central Minister in charge of Social Justice and Empowerment (or another suitable ministry), giving the ministry significant importance.
Mayawati could be brought into Rajya Sabha as an MP with the help of BJP votes. She could become an important part of NDA, not just a nominal ally, despite BSP’s declining electoral fortunes.
This would also help integrate Dalits into the national political mainstream. In the future, many more initiatives, including affirmative action, could be attempted, which no political party has pursued so far.
Although there was bad blood between BJP and Mayawati in the past, the relationships of BJP with Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar were far worse, yet they are now working together. So, if BJP approaches BSP through back channels with sincere intent, this has a good chance of working.
It is also true that the opposition has in recent years accused Mayawati of covertly playing the role of BJP’s B team. Regardless of whether this is true or not, in today’s context, BSP as part of NDA would benefit both BSP and BJP more than BSP splitting opposition votes.
Inviting Mayawati to be part of the NDA is an immediate step that would help the BJP both within UP and across India. And it would help Mayawati even more.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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