[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]A[/dropcap]s Kerala goes for polls on May 16, and it appears almost certain that the Left parties will come to power this time, the only thing to wait for on May 19, the counting day, is if BJP will open its account. You don’t have to be a Psephology pundit to predict that the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is going to win Kerala this time due to the alternating habit of the voters. Since 1980, the power has alternated between the two fronts – Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and CPI-M led LDF.
From the 80s, BJP has always been the third force in Kerala in around 11 Districts out of the 14 districts and in some constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad, Pathanamthitta and Kasargod, the party sometimes reached the second position. But it has been observed in the elections past of an unholy phenomenon that occurs at the last minute in these BJP strongholds. The major fronts UDF and LDF will make a back room deal and shift their votes to block the entry of BJP in Kerala Assembly. This practice in the name of secularism (read deceit or pseudo-secularism) has been observed many times in Thiruvanathapuram and Kasargod seats and it can be deduced easily from looking at the minimum number of votes polled by the party in third position.
In some areas the Congress front will shift their votes to the Left front or vice versa where BJP candidate are showing winning chances in triangular contests. CPI(M) has even come out with a curious explanation for this unholy vote trading by saying that this move is strategic action to counter the winning of BJP which is a communal force. Left thinkers wrote several theses for justifying this. According to them this is a strategic move of secular forces (Congress and Left) to counter the growth of BJP. But these people shut their eyes on Muslim League which is the second biggest party in the UDF, led by Congress. In LDF also, there was a faction of Muslim League till the 90s.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]T[/dropcap]he current government led by UDF is totally immersed in corruption and sex scandal allegations. Even Chief Minister Oommen Chandy is facing all sort of allegations. And as usual Congress is facing internal bickering. Unless something earthshaking happens, the CPI(M) led LDF should come to power and its strongman Pinarayi Vijayan should be the next Chief Minister. The LDF is expected to get more than 85 seats in the Assembly having a total of 140 seats and the ruling Congress front is not finding it easy and may net just 35 seats. Which leaves the remaining 20 seats up for grabs.
Another big ideological dilemma that has caught both Congress and CPI(M) cadres in the state as well as common electorate. An average Keralite has still not digested the never-expected-alliance with Congress and CPI(M) in West Bengal, which is also witnessing polls.
Love in Bengal and hatred in Kerala between these two parties has become an unexplainable issue to both parties before the electorate and the BJP is cashing on this aspect in campaigns. But how much this unholy alliance will give dividends remains to be seen. BJP is a giving a strong fight in around 20 seats.
Even though the state BJP leaders claim victory in around 10 seats, it has to be kept in mind that the BJP is yet to open its account in Kerala. One thing is obvious, the votes of BJP will definitely increase in all the seats, but the unholy last minute cross voting by CPI(M) and Congress would be a big hurdle for BJP. Even if one seat is won, it would be a big victory for BJP in the state, which has been tarnished by pseudo-secular thinking and political untouchability to the Sangh Parivar due to the overdose of redundant Left ideologies.
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