[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]L[/dropcap]et us look at the demographic profile of Europe and US in the next few decades taken from UN population projections. The average total fertility rates in the year 2000 in developed countries was 1.57, and in developing countries it was 3.05.The rate for Europe is 1.4 and Japan is 1.3.USA is just 2.1, India at 3.1 and China at 1.72. It is felt a rate of 2.1 is an appropriate replacement rate, including some death of infants etc. For instance, in another forty years the German population would be lesser by nearly 30%. One third of the population will be more than 65 and they will outnumber children by two to one. Italy’s rate is 1.2, and in that Catholic country, in another forty years more than 40 percent will be above 65 yrs. Over the next few decades, the situation could worsen. Estimates suggest that in the next 50 years USA will grow by 100 million numbers and Europe will be less by 100 million numbers. In Russia, two out of three pregnancies are terminated before birth, and Russian women average 2.5 to four abortions each, and their death rate is, believe me, 70 percent more than the birth rate.
India understands heterogeneity much better than the homogenization process of globalisation thrust by the West on the rest.
Putin warns that in 15 years there will be 22 million less Russians, that is, seventh of its current population. Japan is already facing the age crisis. Of course, the Whites in England are not having enough children, with London readying to have “ethnic majority” in a decade. One can go on. This reduction in population is out of Choice in the post-contraceptive world unlike the reduction in the 16th / 17th centuries due to plague etc. The aging of the developed countries coupled with a desire of the labor class, including white collar workers, to work for lesser hours are creating a catastrophe. The best example is the term “Working French”, which has become an oxymoron. If borders are sovereign for labor then it is equally sovereign for financial flows also. If financial markets want a borderless world so be it for the labor markets but it is not acceptable by many in the west since they treat G as a one way street. Hence the presence of the “minutemen” in Arizona who will shoot illegal and rhetoric by Obama about Bangalore taking away the jobs from Buffalo and Italian police drowns illegal Africans.
In this context Europe had “integration” where in Polish and Romanians could move into France and UK. Europe does not have common language nor culture. But Project Europe was visualised by French and German “experts” trying to create an artificial entity.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]t is important to note that all conflicts in the last thousand years emanated from Europe only and later spread to other parts of the world. Crusades and jehadis were centred on Europe and so is the 1st and 2nd world war.
The elites of the world who can be called Davos Junta or Cosmocrats wanted unlimited financial flows across globe and wanted to use Europe as a model.
They don’t have loyalty to any country only to their funds and return on the funds. They don’t have any specific culture other than the “global culture “of drink/eat and fornicate. They, like global terrorists do not respect or recognise sovereignty of nations the so called Westphalian consensus that evolved in 1648 ending the thirty year war.
The huge movement of people across Europe more so from countries like Romania/ Poland etc. to France / Germany/ UK created massive problems for small businesses in those countries. A report in Financial Times [29-06-2016] in a way highlights this issue
“Alexandre a fifty year old builder in France supported Brexit– He complained about how builders from Portugal/ Spain/ Romania were winning small contracts that he had competed for and yet did not pay the same level of taxes or social charges that he faced in France”
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]C[/dropcap]oupled with the movement of people within Europe is the huge influx of refugees pouring into Europe in the last few years from war torn countries like Syria/ Yemen/ Iraq/ Afghanistan and even Pakistan. This has created its own tensions in Europe due to religious and cultural conflicts.
Hence we find many right wing parties in France [Le Pen] Holland [Wilders] Austria/ Hungary etc. are not enthusiastic about EU and may initiate methods to leave.
Surprisingly Davos Junta and left groups are for EU which is a peculiar alignment of Global finance and Domestic labour. But the labour in England revolted and voted for Brexit. So Project Europe is in shambles and so is globalisation. The idea that one size fits all is losing its shine. Different cultures / Different communities have different aspirations and goals. It cannot be fitted in to an American or for that matter European model.
Also, it is difficult to compel people to live as per models. Much more important to model actual behaviour of people in different contexts.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]t will take decades for the West to internalize that the axis of global economy has shifted to Asia. It will be globalisation on the terms of the East. India is the most enthusiastic and eligible candidate for the G since India itself is a Globe but not realized by many Indians. In my class of hundred students—every year– I have at least eight major languages as mother tongues, six different cuisines and four major religions and multiple ways of saying “How are you?” Can any group be more globalised? India understands heterogeneity much better than the homogenization process of globalisation thrust by the West on the rest. Indian globalisation is based on acceptance and not tolerance. That is the difference. That is the real Globalisation. That alone will work. Even China is learning it the hard way by the revolt of the Uighurs which brings the issue of heterogeneity and China’s ability to handle it. Sooner the Chinese learn from India better for them.
Cho S Ramaswamy Visiting Chair Professor of Public policy[CRVCPPP]
An expert in Finance and a two times Fulbright Scholar, Prof. R Vaidyanathan is a much sought after author, speaker and TV commentator on all items related to Money and Finance.