New Delhi, Oct 28
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]T[/dropcap]here is a sharp perception gap between media reports and betting syndicates on the outcome of the battle of Bihar. While most media reports do not seem to back the BJP’s claim of capturing Bihar, the illegal satta market is giving a thumbs down to Nitish Kumar-led alliance. According to a report in the Mail Today, punters believe that the BJP-led NDA might form the government with ease.
The punters have based their prognosis on feedbacks that the BJP is gaining by projecting Prime minister Narendra Modi as the face of the NDA in the state, and the young voters will rise above the caste barrier in backing Modi due to their antipathy for Lalu Prasad. The punters also feel that the PM’s vision of development will neutralize the good work done by Nitish Kumar during the last ten years.
According to satta markets, the NDA will easily cross the halfway mark of 122 seats to form the government. However, the BJP alone will fall short of the target by at least 10-12 seats. The betting syndicates have predicted that the NDA will get between 150-152 seats of the total 243.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]A[/dropcap]ccording to the satta market, Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) will win around 44-46 seats and the RJD will manage 27-29 seats. The Congress will get between 8-10 seats. “Our prediction is based upon the analysis of ground reports. Bookies believe that Nitish joining hands with Lalu might backfire and they will not be able to reach the target of 122 seats to form the government in Bihar,” said a punter quoted by the Mail Today.
However, the punters have often gone awfully wrong in predicting the course of an election. In case of Delhi, where the BJP managed just three seats in the last year’s assembly polls and Aam Admi Party w0n 67 out of 70 seats, the punters had favored the BJP.
When the result finally came out and the AAP scored a stupendous victory, the satta market was in a turmoil and nearly 95% of the punters lost hugely for betting on a losing horse.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]S[/dropcap]ince the opinion and exit polls are banned during the period of the polls, the illegal satta market is the only indicator to the mood of the voters apart from media reports. But political parties are prone to dismiss media reports as “biased” if these don’t suit their palate. For example, the BJP has been accusing the media of trying to paint a distorted picture of the ground reality, which, they feel, has created a buzz that the party was not doing as well as it is bound to do.
The report on the satta market prediction came on a day when the state went to the third phase of polls for 50 seats. The BJP is expected to improve upon its performance in this phase compared to the dismal show in the first two phases in this round. The party could also hope to do well in the next phase where caste combination makes it a hot favourtie. But in the last phase of polls, the Grand Alliance is likely to rout the NDA in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal and Koshi region. If the satta market has to be proven right, the BJP must sweep the 105 seats going to polls in the third and fourth phases. That seems a tall order under the circumstances.
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