Below are some of the factors which may be responsible for the current slow down
1. Economic data is massive. Even with the communication revolution and supercomputers, it is impossible to gather and process data even in a small country, what to say of a country of 130 crore economic agents.
2. Something is happening in the Indian economy. It may be reorganisation led by the formalisation of the Indian economy forced by demonetisation and GST. Technological advances all the time make old jobs disappear and new jobs appear, always more jobs than before. But there is always the drag, and people are forced to change cities.
3. If a socialist economy is run by honest leaders, there is always an initial increase in growth as the slack caused by a looting elite is utilised. But soon even the honest leaders run into the wall of arithmetic which not even the Schrodinger’s electron can penetrate. Nobody can defeat mathematics. Most BJP leaders are socialists. Most want to preserve the status quo. They only want an honest tax department, and nothing more. We don’t know about Modi the enigma. We don’t know whether he is a socialist who believes that his honesty would make it work, or whether he knows that socialism is a big lie. We can only wait and watch.
4. Entire Indian bureaucracy is an extortionist gang. Just yesterday CBI arrested a govt officer who was trying to bribe it with Rs 15 lakh as part of a deal of Rs 2 crore bribe to save an IPS officer. So all the time, 24×7, they frame rules to obstruct business, trade, manufacturing, every economic activity. Then to remove these obstructions they demand and get bribes. An existing steel or aluminium plant planning to increase its capacity still needs afresh over 150 clearances, permissions, and NOCs. In a sane, free society, no clearance will be required by such plants. We are strangulating economy with our own bare hands.
5. Environmental mafia is the most powerful now. You can have all of the above 150 clearances, and still, a PIL thug can get a court to shut down construction of your plant, or if constructed, its operation. Not even tyrants and dictators are that arbitrary.
6. The new Land Acquisition Act passed by the Italian is another evidence that the natives can’t even frame laws. Good that Brits gave us IPC. This act empowers any “farmer” to block a project at any stage. People are not moral beings. You give them a chance to fleece you, or to fleece the state, and their greed will never be satisfied. And Indian land records (supposed to be maintained by the demiGods of IAS) make locating the actual owner a never-ending quest. Land acquisition never gets completed.
7. From the belly of corrupt bureaucracy are born the thieving parasites who all partake their cut from every economic activity: local thug the रंगदार, the village Pradhan, journalists, assorted activists, full-blown mafia gangs of the area; all come and extort money from the businessmen. Then come the labour leaders. Their right to violence has not been challenged as yet.
These are some of the factors I have listed which may be responsible for the current slow down after the initial slack of a socialist economy has been used.
Fact is, the only wealth of a Nation is the integrity of its people. If people are honest, the country progressively becomes richer. Either Indians are changing their behaviour, and the economy is changing gear for good, and will speed up as the clutch is released. Or, if Modi is also a socialist, we are in for a soon-to-begin royal screwing.
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